ARK '2025 Vision': Governments have already started exploring cryptocurrency, and by 2030, BTC will have reached at least $300,000

By: blockbeats|2025/02/07 14:30:03
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Original Title: BIG IDEAS 2025
Original Source: ARK Invest
Original Translation: Nicky, Foresight News

1. Bitcoin: Maturation of the Global Monetary System and Institutionalization Process

Bitcoin reached a milestone development in 2024, with its network fundamentals and institutional adoption both significantly improved, demonstrating its long-term value as "digital gold."

1. Market Performance and Accelerated Institutionalization

· Price Performance and ETF Breakthrough: In 2024, Bitcoin price hit a historic high, surpassing $100,000, and its market dominance (percentage of total cryptocurrency market cap) exceeded 65% for the first time. Behind this growth, the launch of physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs became a key catalyst. The first U.S. physically-backed Bitcoin ETF attracted over $4 billion in inflows on its debut trading day, far surpassing the historical record of gold ETFs in September 2004. By the end of 2024, the total assets under management (AUM) of Bitcoin ETFs had surpassed $100 billion, with a significant increase in institutional investor participation. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's annual volatility dropped to historic lows, and its risk-adjusted returns continued to outperform most major asset classes.

· Halving and Scarcity: Bitcoin completed its fourth halving, bringing the annual inflation rate down to 0.9%, the first time below gold's long-term supply growth rate (approximately 1.7%), once again highlighting its deflationary nature. Its coded total supply cap of 21 million coins and mathematically enforced monetary policy further strengthened the narrative of "digital gold." On-chain data showed that long-term holders (holding for over 3 years) accounted for 45%, reaching a historical high, indicating the continued recognition of Bitcoin as a store of value.

· Corporate Holdings and Strategic Reserves: 74 publicly traded companies globally have included Bitcoin on their balance sheets, with a total holding of over 550,000 coins, valued at approximately $55 billion. MicroStrategy, as the largest holder, held 446,000 coins (2.1% of Bitcoin's circulating supply). Additionally, Pennsylvania became the first U.S. state to propose establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, signaling governmental exploration of cryptocurrency.

2. Technological Advancement and Network Health

· Hash Rate Hits All-Time High: Despite a halving that halved miner revenue, the network's hash rate has still hit a historical record, indicating miners' long-term confidence.

· Runes Protocol Activation: The Bitcoin-based Fungible Token protocol has driven on-chain transaction volume to surge, with daily transactions surpassing 800,000, and the ecosystem's application scenarios continue to expand.

· Holding Behavior Longevity: Over 45% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved for over 3 years, on-chain liquidity has dropped to a 14-year low, reflecting its positioning as a store of value tool.

3. 2030 Price Prediction

ARK predicts Bitcoin's price outlook in 2030 to be:

· Bear Market Price: $300,000

· Neutral Price: $710,000

· Bull Market Price: $1.5 million

ARK '2025 Vision': Governments have already started exploring cryptocurrency, and by 2030, BTC will have reached at least 00,000

II. AI Agents: Rethinking Human-Machine Interaction and Business Efficiency

AI Agents are evolving from single-task tools to general intelligence platforms. Their core capabilities include natural language understanding, contextual reasoning, tool invocation, and continuous learning.

1. Consumer-End Transformation

· Search and Advertising Restructuring: AI-driven personalized agents will replace traditional search engines, with AI ad revenue expected to account for 54% of the digital advertising market in 2030, reaching $600 billion in size.

· E-commerce Revolution: AI agents deeply integrated into operating systems allow users to complete the entire process of product search, price comparison, and payment through voice or text commands. For example, a shopping agent embedded in a digital wallet can automatically select the best products and complete the checkout, driving digital wallet's share of global e-commerce transactions to 72% and creating an additional $200 billion in annual enterprise value. It is estimated that by 2030, such agents will drive $9 trillion in online consumption, accounting for 25% of global e-commerce total.

· Hardware Proliferation: After 2025, the majority of consumer electronics devices will have built-in AI agent functionality, with penetration curves surpassing or matching that of smartphones.

2. Leap in Enterprise Efficiency

· Customer Service Cost Optimization: AI customer service can reduce the cost per interaction from $1 to $0.125, handle 70% of inquiries, saving global enterprises over $500 billion in labor costs.

· Software Development Revolution: AI coding tools (such as GPT-4, Claude 3.5) can now address 70% of real tasks, reducing the software development lifecycle by 40% and driving enterprises from buying software to custom development. If AI agents automate 81% of knowledge work time, they will unlock a $117 trillion productivity dividend by 2030. The software market size may surge from the current $1.5 trillion to $13 trillion (CAGR 48%), with underlying cloud infrastructure and AI chip demand exploding simultaneously.

III. Stablecoins: Reshaping the Digital Asset Landscape

By 2024, stablecoin annualized transaction volume will reach $15.6 trillion, surpassing Visa ($13.1 trillion) and Mastercard ($7.8 trillion), becoming the fastest-growing global payment network.

1. Market Surge and Innovation

· Scale and Efficiency: Stablecoin annual settlement volume reaches $15.6 trillion, with single transaction values far exceeding credit cards, and on-chain settlements on platforms like Solana and Tron account for over 60%. In December, monthly on-chain stablecoin trading volume reached $2.7 trillion, with small-value transactions (<$100) representing over 85% on Layer 2. Users in emerging markets (Brazil, Nigeria, etc.) are using stablecoins for cross-border remittances and inflation-resistant savings, driving active address count past 23 million. Concurrently, stablecoin adoption on Layer 2 (Base, Arbitrum) and emerging public chains (TON, Celo) is surging, driving cross-chain interoperability needs.

· Rise of Yield-Generating Stablecoins: Ethena Labs' USDe provides 20%-30% yield through a Delta-neutral strategy, with $6 billion in assets locked in 12 months, elevating the share of algorithmic stablecoins with non-native collateral to 10%.

· Dollarization Trend: Despite many countries promoting de-dollarization, the share of USD stablecoins still exceeds 98%, with Tether and Circle holding U.S. debt at a scale ranking them among the top 20 global holders. Stablecoins have become a key tool for USD "digital export," especially amid the de-dollarization trend, where the demand for USD stablecoins in emerging markets has offset some countries' reduction in U.S. debt holdings. ARK predicts that by 2030, stablecoin volume will reach $14 trillion, accounting for 0.9% of global M2 money supply, becoming the 13th largest circulating currency.

2. Regulation and Challenges

· Acceleration of Compliance: The U.S. "Stablecoin Governance Act" framework has emerged, requiring a 100% reserve and audit transparency, further consolidating market share among leading issuers.  

IV. Blockchain Scalability: Competition Between Layer 2 and High-Performance Public Chains

Ethereum Layer 2 and Solana lead the scalability trend, driving the smart contract ecosystem towards high throughput and low-cost evolution.

1. Ethereum Ecosystem Upgrade

· EIP-4844 Effect: The EIP-4844 upgrade has reduced Layer 2 transaction costs from $0.5 to $0.05, with daily transaction volume surging from 3 million to 15 million.

· Rapid Growth of Base: Base Chain's DAU share reached 46%, TVL exceeded $15 billion, Coinbase's ecosystem synergy is evident, and it has driven Ethereum's shift from the settlement layer to the application layer.

2. Solana's Retail Breakthrough

· Performance Advantage: With an average of 800 TPS far exceeding the Ethereum ecosystem (200 TPS), daily active addresses surpassing 1.2 million, and on-chain fee income accounting for 22% of the cryptocurrency market. Its low fees ( $0.001 per transaction) attract a large number of retail users, with the prediction market platform Polymarket and DEX Raydium becoming benchmarks in the ecosystem. The Firedancer client is expected to increase throughput to the hundreds of thousands.

· Developer Migration: In 2024, Solana's addition of developers surpassed the Ethereum mainnet, with Memecoin and DePIN (Decentralized Physical Internet Network) becoming dual engines of ecosystem growth.

3. Application Layer Breakout

· DeFi Challenging CEX: DEX trading volume share increased from 8% to 14%, and the derivatives market grew to 8%. The efficiency of a single Uniswap employee is 200 times that of Binance.

· Rise of Prediction Markets: Polymarket, with events like the U.S. election and sports betting, surpassed $1.2 billion in monthly trading volume with over 3 million users.

Further Maturation of Staking Economy: Liquidity staking protocols (such as Lido, EigenLayer) collectively manage over 5.5 million ETH (17% of the total staked ETH), driving the maturation of the staking economy.

Conclusion: The Integration and Breakthrough of Web3

By 2025, the monetary properties of Bitcoin, the productivity unleashed by AI Agents, the expansion of stablecoin payment networks, and the technological breakthroughs in blockchain scalability will collectively shape the core of ARK's "2025 Big Ideas." The convergence of these technologies will reshape the global economy: AI-driven computing demand will drive an energy revolution, stablecoins will bolster the dominance of the US dollar, and blockchain scalability will unlock the potential of decentralized applications. Web3 practitioners need to focus on the evolution of foundational protocols, grasp key tracks such as cross-chain interoperability, AI-native DApps, and compliant stablecoins in the fusion of technologies to capture value.

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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