Is USD0 the next UST? Will USUAL holders need to panic?

By: blockbeats|2025/01/10 17:15:02
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2024 was a big year for stablecoin projects, with an increasing number of innovative new stablecoin projects emerging in the market. Just in the second half of last year, at least 23 stablecoin projects received funding ranging from 2 million to 45 million. Apart from Ethena, which surpassed DAI in market share with its USDe, Usual became another eye-catching stablecoin project. Not only did it have the endorsement of French Member of Parliament Pierre Person's government background, but Usual also launched on Binance at the end of 2024, showcasing its performance in the market.

However, Usual, once a market darling, saw its token Usual plummet by over 30% in a week, and this morning its USD0++ token instantly dropped to around $0.946, where a USD0++ token can only be redeemed for approximately $0.94. Currently, in the Curve USD0/USD0++ pool, USD0++ accounts for a skewed 90.75%.

Is USD0 the next UST? Will USUAL holders need to panic?

USD0++ Price Drop, Image Source: Curve

What exactly happened to Usual, and why did USD0++ suddenly experience a flash crash?

A Panic-Inducing Run on the Bank Triggered by a Single Announcement

The unpegging of USD0++ can be traced back to an announcement made by Usual's official team on the morning of January 10. In the announcement, the Usual team changed the redemption terms of USD0++, transitioning from the original 1:1 redemption to a brand-new dual-exit strategy. One of the ways is a conditional exit, where users can still exit USD0++ at a 1:1 ratio but will need to burn a portion of the yield upon exit. The other way is an unconditional exit, but unlike the previous deterministic 1:1, the official team set a minimum exit ratio of 0.87:1, gradually re-anchoring to $1 over time.

Usual Announcement on Two Exit Strategies, Image Source: Usual Website

Usual's announcement quickly spread within the usual community. Thus, under the fermentation of the new USD0++ redemption rules, panic gradually spread from large whale holders to retail investors. In this game of "running for your life," those who run first always suffer less loss than those who are slower. After today's announcement, under the fleeing of large holders and the spread of panic, retail investors also began to sell off. The outflow of USD0 not only accelerated but also "broke through" in the Curve USD0/USD0++ pool. As a large amount of USD0++ was redeemed, the USD0 ratio plummeted to an astonishing 8.18%.

Image Source: Curve

Let's rewind the timeline back to when USUAL was listed on Binance. Initially, the Usual team set up a redemption mechanism last year that allowed for a 1:1 redemption. Unlike Ethena, which leans more towards a B2B positioning, Usual's product leaned more towards a C2C approach, attracting many whales. In this scenario where Usual's official 1:1 redemption acted as a safety net, many whales not only took large positions but also continuously increased their leverage and capital efficiency through strategies like yield farming. This approach, essentially providing risk-free returns to all users, was viable as long as Usual's team didn't change the rules of the game. This meant that whales could gain USUAL rewards without incurring additional opportunity costs.

Simultaneously, the price of USUAL surged, leading to a skyrocketing APY, attracting more users to stake their assets. This positive feedback loop, underpinned by Usual's tight control of the token and the impressive paper APY, attracted more TVL, further driving up the price. Usual's strategy of controlling the token and using high paper APY to attract TVL almost seemed like an overt plan. Small retail holders could also follow the whales' lead under Usual's "follow the leader" model. Therefore, Usual's positive feedback loop quickly started spinning.

Usual's sky-high APY, Image Source: Usual Website

However, the key aspect of this mechanism lies in the exit strategy. For long-term holders, USUAL's issuance is tied to the overall protocol's income, where higher TVL translates to lower USUAL issuance, creating a deflationary mechanism. By reducing the token's supply on the supply side, Usual artificially introduced a level of scarcity. The team also didn't overlook the design of the USUAL mechanism; holders staking the USUAL token would receive USUALx, with these holders receiving 10% of the daily newly minted USUAL, incentivizing early adopters. Additionally, in the event of an early redemption at USD0++, 33% of the burned USUAL will be allocated to USUALx holders, creating an additional income source. Now, for short-term holders, the decision lies between selling off USUAL and running for the hills or continuing to hold USUAL and stake for more rewards. The dilemma is whether to choose "take the small benefits" or "cut and run." In a scenario where the coin price keeps rising, opting for an exit strategy will only yield the immediate USUAL returns, whereas standing the test of time will provide "staking rewards + USUAL token price appreciation + additional rewards." Usual's equilibrium is constantly being tugged in the economic game between short-term and long-term holders.

However, all gifts in fate already come with a price tag. The Usual team had hinted at the early imposition of an exit fee of USD0++, and almost all Usual participants tacitly understood the game, all vying to be the last one standing before the collapse of the tower.

Why the "Mysterious" 0.87?

So why did the team choose to set the proportion of unconditional exits to 0.87 in today's announcement? How did the team come up with this precise figure of 0.87?

Profit Burning Theory

The 0.87:1 ratio set in the announcement prompted a delicate balance of interests among whales. With the previous 1:1 redemption strategy no longer in effect, losing official protection, whales now face the challenge of finding a general among the "shorts." If the team were to opt for a conditional redemption, investors would need to return a portion of their future profits to the project team, but the details of this profit clawback have not been disclosed by the team. Conversely, if they choose to accept unconditional redemption, the worst-case scenario would only secure 0.87, leaving the remaining 0.13 as the core of the game. When one of the two exit methods offers higher returns, funds will naturally vote for the most profitable exit method. However, a well-designed mechanism should allow users the flexibility to choose between the two options rather than a one-sided decision. Therefore, the existence of the 0.13 gap is likely the portion the team has yet to disclose as requiring profit burning, forcing users to make a decision between the two methods. From the user's perspective, if the subsequent payout of 0.13 for a downside cost is anticipated, it may be more prudent to sell at the current anchor price (currently holding at around 0.94). USD0++ will also shed its previous packaging and return to its bond's economic essence. The 0.13 is the discounted portion, while 0.87 reflects its intrinsic value.

Liquidation Floor Theory

Since Usual previously offered users a 1:1 peg to USD0++, allowing many whales to safely leverage their positions to nearly risk-free returns through protocols like Morpho and further increase leverage to enhance capital efficiency. Typically, users engaging in this leverage cycle would collateralize their USD0++, borrow a certain amount of USDC, exchange this USDC back into USD0++, and then start a new cycle. These users enthusiastic about leveraged loans provided Usual with a substantial TVL, soaring higher with one foot on the floor, but behind the perpetual motion machine of TVL lies a liquidation line.

In the Morpho protocol, the USD0 liquidation line is determined by the loan-to-value ratio (LLTV). LLTV is a fixed ratio, and when a user's loan-to-value ratio (LTV) exceeds LLTV, their position is at risk of liquidation. Currently, Morpho's liquidation line stands at 86%, just a step away from the team's 0.87 safety net in unconditional exits.

The settlement line for USD0++ in Morpho is 86%, Image Source: Morpho

The official announcement of 0.87 in Usual is precisely above Morpho's 0.86 settlement line. It can be said that the official setting of 0.87 is the final barrier set by the official to prevent systemic liquidation risks. Although the setting of 0.87 provides a final bottoming out, it maintains the dignity of a project for users.

However, this is also the reason why many whales are waiting on the sidelines. There is a space of 13 points in between for free fluctuation, and more people will interpret it as long as there is no final chain liquidation, the project will eventually be left to "free fall."

What are the short-term and long-term impacts after the anchor breaks?

So how will USD0++ end after breaking the anchor? The panic sentiment about USD0++ in the market has not ended yet. The vast majority of people are holding a risk-management attitude, staying put, and maintaining a wait-and-see approach. The market's consensus on the reasonable value of USD0++ stabilizes around 0.94, based on the situation after the temporary announcement. The official announcement regarding the "unconditional exit" in the exit mechanism, including how much burning and specific profit deductions will occur, has not been disclosed in detail yet and is expected to be further detailed next week. To be extreme, if next week the official does not follow the market's predicted 13-point space and instead burns 0.5% of USUAL, then USD0++ will quickly re-anchor at the 0.995 level. The re-anchoring of USD0++ will depend on the burning details announced by the Usual official next week.

Regardless of how the final mechanism details are decided, it will benefit the holders of the UsualX and USUAL tokens. The Usual official's design of a new exit method reduces the earnings of USD0++, leading to a decrease in the TVL of USUAL/USD0++ and a consequent rise in the price of the USUAL token. After the burning starts, USUAL will be consumed, further capturing token value, and the price will become more resilient as a result. From the design of Usual's mechanism, it can also be seen that in the design of the protocol flywheel, USUAL is a crucial part of the flywheel's rotation. Since its peak at 1.6, USUAL has fallen by about 58%, and another takeoff of USUAL is needed to turn the flywheel again.

USUAL Token Price Surges Over 58%, Image Source: TradingView

Amusingly, while a large number of arbitrageurs contributed a significant amount of TVL to Usual through Morpho's circular lending, the official announcement of the 0.87 floor seems more like a warning to those leveraged at the 0.86 liquidation line.

Usual has now removed the previous "privilege" of a 1:1 rigid redemption, correcting the previously "should-not-have-existed" mechanism. As for the USD0++ anchoring situation, the entire market is also awaiting Usual's official announcement next week, at which time Blockbeats will continue to follow up.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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