Is Whale Watching a Reliable Trading Signal?

By: blockbeats|2025/01/11 19:15:03
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Original Article Title: Whale Alerts: Are They Tradable?
Original Article Source: Presto Research
Original Article Translation: Golem, Odaily Daily Planet

Key Points:

· Whale alerts are popular because large on-chain transactions are often seen as a precursor to an imminent token sell-off and a sell signal. To assess these claims, Presto Research analyzed the price movements of BTC, ETH, and SOL after large deposits to Binance.

· According to the regression analysis, the R-squared values between large transaction deposits and subsequent price movements are low (ranging from 0.0017 to 0.0537). Narrowing the data to deposits from VCs and MM (Market Makers) slightly increased the R-squared values, but their practical utility as trading signals remains limited. The research results strongly suggest that whale deposits to exchanges lack predictive power as a reliable trading signal.

· On-chain metrics are effective in other areas, such as analyzing blockchain fundamentals, tracking illicit fund flows, or explaining price fluctuations. Only when investors have a more realistic expectation of the capabilities and limitations of these metrics can they better serve the industry.

Is Whale Watching a Reliable Trading Signal?

One of the key differences between crypto assets and other assets is the public availability of their transaction records, which are stored on a distributed ledger. This transparency of the blockchain has led to the emergence of various tools that leverage this unique feature, categorized as "on-chain data." One such tool is "Whale Alerts," which is a service that automatically notifies large on-chain crypto transactions. They are popular because large transactions are often seen as a precursor to imminent sell-off activity, hence traders consider them a "sell signal."

This report evaluates the effectiveness of this widely accepted assumption. After briefly outlining the popular whale alert services in the market, we will analyze the relationship between large transaction deposits and the prices of BTC, ETH, and SOL. We will then present the analysis results and provide key conclusions and recommendations.

Whale Alerts Overview

Whale Alerts refer to services that track and report large crypto transactions. These services have emerged with the development of the crypto ecosystem, reflecting market participants' high regard for the transparency features of blockchain.

History

As early Bitcoin adopters, miners, and investors (such as Satoshi Nakamoto, the Winklevoss Twins, F2Pool, Mt. Gox) accumulated a significant amount of Bitcoin, the term "whale" began to circulate. Initially, blockchain enthusiasts monitored large transactions through a blockchain explorer (such as Blockchain.info) and shared this information on forums like Bitcointalk or Reddit. This data was often used to explain significant fluctuations in the Bitcoin price.

During the bull market of 2017, with the increase in whale transactions and large transactions, the market saw a pressing need for automated monitoring solutions. In 2018, a European development team introduced a tool called "Whale Alert," which could track large cryptocurrency transactions in real-time across multiple blockchains and send alerts via Twitter, Telegram, and a web interface. The tool quickly gained popularity among market participants, becoming the preferred service for those seeking actionable trade signals.

Source: Whale Alert (@whale_alert)

Key Assumption

Following the success of Whale Alert, many platforms offering similar services have emerged over the years, as shown in the image below. While many new platforms have added more features to provide background information for alerts, the original Whale Alert still focuses on simple, real-time notifications and remains the most popular service, as evidenced by its large following on Twitter. A common feature of all these services is their reliance on the assumption that large on-chain transactions, especially exchange deposits, signal imminent sell-offs.

Mainstream Whale Alert Services, Data Source: Whale Alert, LookIntoBitcoin, Glassnode, Santiment, Twitter, Presto Research

Signal Validity Assessment

Supporters of the Whale Alert service believe that on-chain asset transfers to exchanges often precede liquidations, making them effective sell signals. To validate this assumption, we analyzed the price change of digital assets after large deposits entered exchanges, with the key parameters of the analysis shown in the chart below. The assumption is that if large deposit transactions can serve as reliable trading signals, a clear relationship should be observed between deposits and the corresponding asset's price.

Key Analysis Parameters, Source: Presto Research

Assets, Exchanges, Analysis Period, and Deposit Threshold

Our analysis focuses on three major cryptocurrencies—BTC, ETH, and SOL—between January 1, 2021, and December 27, 2024, along with their USDT prices on Binance. This time range was chosen to align with the operational duration of the wallet addresses currently used by Binance for deposit aggregation.

The deposit threshold was set based on data analysis from an exchange. Specifically, benchmarking against the Whale Alert thresholds of $50 million, $50 million, and $20 million for BTC, ETH, and SOL whales, respectively, we adjusted the deposit thresholds to $20 million, $20 million, and $8 million to match Binance's 40% share of global spot trading volume.

Entity Types

We also conducted a specific analysis of known entity deposits and performed the same analysis on a narrower data sample to examine if deposits from specific entity types showed a stronger relationship with price movements. These entities were identified by Arkham Intelligence and supplemented by our own investigations, as shown in the figure below.

Entities with Known Addresses, Source: Arkham Intelligence, Presto Research

Measuring Market Impact

To assess the potential selling pressure from whale deposits, we made the following assumptions:

· Selling pressure would manifest within a specific time window after on-chain confirmation of deposits exceeding the threshold. We analyzed two time periods: one hour and six hours.

· The Maximum Drawdown (MDD) within the specified interval was used as a metric to gauge the price impact of deposits (if any), effectively filtering out noise during that period.

Results

The analysis results are depicted in the following charts

· BTC Whale Deposit Impact (Overall):

Source: Binance, Dune Analytics, Presto Research

· BTC Whale Deposit Impact (VC and MM only):

Source: Binance, Dune Analytics, Presto Research

· ETH Whale Deposit Impact (Overall):

Source: Binance, Dune Analytics, Presto Research

· ETH Whale Deposit Impact (VC and MM only):

Source: Binance, Dune Analytics, Presto Research

· SOL Whale Deposit Impact (Overall):

Source: Binance, Dune Analytics, Presto Research

· SOL Whale Deposit Impact (VC and MM only):

Source: Binance, Dune Analytics, Presto Research

Key Points

Data Source: Binance, Dune Analytics, Presto Research

The chart above summarizes the results of the above statistics and draws the following 3 conclusions:

1. Large Exchange Deposits and Price Drop Prediction: The R-squared values for all 12 scenarios indicate a very weak predictive power, ranging from 0.0017 to 0.0537.

2. VC and MM Deposits May Be Slightly Better Predictive Signals: In this data set, the R-squared values show some improvement, but this improvement may only be the result of reduced sample noise rather than a true stronger correlation. Furthermore, the absolute values are still low, indicating limited actual effectiveness as a trading signal.

3. ETH Whale Deposits Mainly Come from VC and MM: They represent 61% of ETH whale deposits (i.e., 538 out of 879 transactions), while BTC accounts for only 13%, and SOL for 32%. This reflects the characteristics of different assets: ETH, with its diverse Web3 uses (such as gas fees, staking, DeFi lending, and swap intermediation), has higher turnover, while BTC, as a store of value asset, is more stable.

Conclusion

Undoubtedly, our analysis method has certain limitations, and regression analysis has its inherent constraints, so drawing conclusions solely based on R-squared values can sometimes be misleading.

Nevertheless, this analysis, combined with background and individual observation results, strongly suggests that whale deposits to exchanges lack sufficient predictive power to be a reliable trading signal. This also provides us with profound insights into the broader use of on-chain metrics.

On-chain metrics are undoubtedly valuable tools, especially for analyzing blockchain fundamentals or tracking illicit fund flows, and they may be useful in retrospectively explaining price movements. However, using them to predict short-term price changes is an entirely different matter. Price is a function of both supply and demand, and exchange deposits are just one of many factors influencing the supply side, even if they are indeed useful. Price discovery is a complex process influenced by fundamentals, market structure, behavioral factors (such as emotions, expectations), and random noise.

In the highly volatile cryptocurrency market, participants are constantly seeking a "foolproof" trading strategy, and there will always be an audience drawn to the "magic" of on-chain metrics. As some "overzealous" data providers are eager to exaggerate the promises of their platforms, investors can only better serve the industry when they have a realistic expectation of the capabilities and limitations of these tools.

Original Article Link

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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