Seven Green Candles Meet Three White Soldiers | Rewire News Morning Brief

The S&P 500 is up for the seventh consecutive day, with the Dow turning positive for the year, but the underlying assumption of the ceasefire rally will be tested by CPI tonight.

1｜S&P 500 Up Seven Consecutive Days to 6824, Dow Turns Positive for the Year, Ceasefire Rally to Face CPI Tonight

The U.S. stock market closed higher on Thursday, extending its rally since the ceasefire. The S&P 500 rose 0.62% to 6824.66, marking its longest winning streak since October. The Nasdaq rose 0.83% to 22822.42, the Dow Jones rose 275.88 points to 48185.80, turning positive for the year. The seven-day gains are built on one assumption: that the ceasefire can contain oil prices and peak energy inflation.

Tonight at 8:30 pm Beijing time, the March CPI will be released. FactSet's consensus of three institutions forecasts a median of 3.4%, the highest since April 2024. The March data collection window covered the period of the Hormuz closure, with the average oil price still above $100. If the actual number falls within the upper end of the forecast range at 3.9%, the ceasefire narrative of seven consecutive days will be abruptly challenged by inflation data. The Fed's minutes released last night already signaled "maintaining tightening," with the CPI serving as the second boot.

(Source: Yahoo Finance / Bloomberg / CNBC / TheStreet / FactSet)

2｜72-Hour Ceasefire, Three Negotiation Fronts Simultaneously Open

The Islamabad negotiations are in the final stages of preparation. The Vans delegation arrived in Pakistan today, with formal talks scheduled for tomorrow morning. The Iranian delegation, led by Speaker Galibaf, with Sherif mediating. The Iranian ten-point plan is the nominal basis, with the core demands being passage rights in the strait and the lifting of all sanctions. Trump accused Iran of charging tolls last night, saying, "This is not the agreement we reached," while the White House stated that the ceasefire condition is "unrestricted, free" access to Hormuz.

The second front only emerged yesterday. Netanyahu announced instructing the cabinet to "engage in immediate direct talks with Lebanon," focusing on disarming Hezbollah. This invitation came 24 hours after an airstrike that killed 303 people, with Hezbollah already rejecting it, stating that a ceasefire is a prerequisite. The three fronts are vying for interpretive authority over the same ceasefire agreement, each pulling in a different direction. (Continued from yesterday's report)

(Source: CNBC / Axios / Al Jazeera / CNN / Washington Times)

3｜Burry Publicly Declares "Anthropic Is Having Palantir for Lunch," PLTR Dives 7.3% in a Single Day

Palantir closed Thursday down 7.3% at $130.49, with a volume of 90.8 million shares, 82% higher than the three-month average. The trigger was Michael Burry's post on X stating "Anthropic Is Having Palantir for Lunch," pointing out that Anthropic achieved an annualized revenue of $90 billion to $300 billion in just a few months, while Palantir took 20 years to reach $5 billion. Ramp data shows that Anthropic took away 73% of the new enterprise AI spend.

Burry's timing was not random. Just on Wednesday, Anthropic released the Managed Agents beta, a cloud AI agent deployment product positioned as a lightweight alternative to Palantir Foundry. Foundry deployments typically require Palantir on-site consultants and months of integration, while Managed Agents claim to compress this cycle to days. This is not just a valuation dispute but a fork in the enterprise AI delivery model.

(Source: Benzinga / Motley Fool / Yahoo Finance / Disruption Banking)

4｜Private Credit Redemption Wave Hits Four Giants Simultaneously, Carlyle Forced to Impose Gates

Carlyle's flagship private credit fund, CTAC, saw redemption requests of 15.7% in the first quarter, with net assets of around $4.8 billion, but could only honor the 5% limit, approximately $240 million, less than a third of what investors applied for. Meanwhile, Blackstone's private credit fund had a redemption rate of 8%, Apollo 11.2%, Ares 11.6%, and Blue Owl 21.9%.

Five top funds simultaneously hit or approached redemption limits, indicating this is not just a liquidity issue of individual funds. The Middle East conflict has raised rate hike expectations, prompting investors to reassess the liquidity premium of private credit. A Carlyle spokesperson cited redemption windows lagging behind peers as the main reason, but when all five funds are giving their own "special reasons," systemic signals have overshadowed individual explanations.

(Source: Bloomberg / WSJ / Reuters / Benzinga / Yahoo Finance)

Also Good to Know ↓

The March CPI will be released tonight at 8:30 PM Beijing time, with FactSet forecasting a 3.4% year-over-year increase, the highest since April 2024. The forecast range is 3.3% to 3.9%, with a core CPI forecast of 2.7%. The March data collection window covers the period of high oil prices due to the Iran conflict, with the energy price month-over-month increase expected to be the largest since 1957. CME FedWatch shows a high probability of no change on April 29. (Source: FactSet / CBS News / Morningstar)

Trump warned Iran last night on social media to "stop it now" with regard to the collection of tolls in the Strait of Hormuz. The White House stated that the ceasefire condition is for the strait to be open "unrestricted and toll-free," but Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated they will "take strait management to a new stage." Less than 72 hours into the ceasefire, the definition of the strait has become a negotiating chip. (Source: CNBC / Axios / ABC News)

Morgan Stanley becomes the first U.S. bank to issue a physically backed Bitcoin ETF. MSBT debuted on April 8 with $34 million in net inflows, sporting a management fee of 0.14% lower than BlackRock's BIT at 0.25%. Analysts project a first-year AUM target of $5 billion. BTC rose by 5.2% in the past 24 hours to $71,800. (Source: CoinDesk / Bloomberg / Fortune / BusinessWire)

Meta signs a $210 billion expansion deal with CoreWeave, adding to the previously promised total commitment of $350 billion. The data centers will run on NVIDIA's Rubin system, with deliveries scheduled between 2027 and 2032. Meta's capex guidance for this year is between $115 billion and $135 billion. In the same week, Meta released the closed-source model Muse Spark, the first time not opening up the weights. (Source: Bloomberg / CNBC / CoreWeave Website)

Amazon CEO Jassy reveals for the first time that AWS AI's annualized revenue has surpassed $15 billion, accounting for about 10% of AWS's total revenue. The in-house chip business has an annual revenue exceeding $20 billion, doubling since the beginning of the year. Amazon's capex for this year remains at $200 billion. (Source: Sherwood News / GeekWire / Yahoo Finance)