The Crypto Matthew Effect: As market cap is increasingly dominated by mainstream coins, is there still a chance for altcoins?

By: blockbeats|2026/01/21 18:00:01
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Original Title: Capital Concentration in an Expanding Crypto Universe
Original Author: Tanay Ved, coinmetrics
Original Translator: Luffy, Foresight News

TL;DR

The crypto investment landscape continues to expand, but capital is increasingly concentrated in a narrowing range of assets: Bitcoin's market dominance is on the rise, while the growth of stablecoins and on-chain derivatives is squeezing the market space for altcoins. The altcoin market is shrinking, with a significant increase in top-heavy concentration: the top ten altcoins by market cap now represent around 82% of the sector's total market cap, a significant increase from 70% five years ago. Since 2023, large-cap crypto assets have significantly outperformed mid-cap and small-cap coins; fund flows in the market post-volatility have further strengthened investor preferences for high liquidity and established flagship assets.

The crypto investment landscape is still expanding. Hundreds of new tokens are launched every year, the universe of stocks focused on digital assets is growing, and tokenization technology is gradually bringing traditional assets such as stocks and commodities onto the blockchain. As investment choices become more varied, market capital is becoming more discriminating.

Bitcoin's market dominance has risen to around 65%, reaching its highest level since early 2021; at the same time, stablecoins and on-chain derivatives (such as wrapped tokens, staking tokens, cross-chain bridge tokens, etc.) account for nearly 12.5% of the total crypto market cap. Therefore, altcoins are facing a dual squeeze, as their total market share is shrinking despite the increasing number of tokens.

This issue of the "Network Market Overview" report will explore whether the crypto market is undergoing a structural shift towards capital concentration. We will analyze the trends in market dominance and performance for assets in different market cap brackets and different sectors to investigate whether capital is continuing to concentrate on a smaller number of tokens that are larger in scale and more mature in development, or if investment opportunities are still widely distributed?

Evolution of Market Dominance

First, let's start with an analysis of market dominance. Bitcoin's market dominance (i.e., Bitcoin's market cap as a percentage of the total crypto market cap) has climbed to 65% in 2025, hitting a new high since 2021. It is worth noting that this growth is not a short-term spike but rather a long-term steady upward trend since hitting a low point in 2022.

The launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF has deepened the institutionalization process, attracting over $150 billion of long-term capital and further boosting its market dominance. This trend has solidified Bitcoin's position as a "safe haven asset" in the crypto market, making it a high-liquidity, standardized entry point for traditional institutional investors into the crypto market. Compared to the previous rounds of altseasons during bull markets, which rapidly diluted Bitcoin's market dominance, Bitcoin's dominance in this round is more enduring.

The Crypto Matthew Effect: As market cap is increasingly dominated by mainstream coins, is there still a chance for altcoins?

Bitcoin Dominance, Data Source: Coin Metrics

The structure of other assets in the crypto market is also undergoing a transformation. Stablecoins with a market capitalization of over $300 billion and the increasing share of on-chain derivatives in the total market cap are reshaping the market. These tokens serve different functions in the crypto ecosystem: stablecoins are the primary trading medium in the market, while on-chain derivatives provide investors with the right to claim underlying asset returns or create yield-generating channels.

Crypto Market Dominance Distribution, Data Source: Coin Metrics

As a result, the altcoin market is facing a dilemma. The range of investable assets is narrowing, and the concentration of top projects is becoming more evident: market value continues to flow towards assets with higher liquidity and more mature development. These assets often have clear use cases, a defined regulatory development path, and can fully benefit from the development trends of stablecoins, decentralized finance (DeFi), and asset tokenization.

In contrast to previous market cycles, this round has seen a significant slowdown in capital rotation from mainstream coins to altcoins, with ETFs and various institutional investment tools firmly locking market liquidity in top assets. However, with the implementation of universal listing standards, the launch of altcoin and multi-asset ETFs to broaden investment channels for more large-cap altcoins, and the advancement of market structure-related legislation, this market landscape may undergo a transformation.

The "Giant Monopoly" Trend in the Altcoin Sector

Even within the altcoin sector, the trend of capital concentration is intensifying. The top ten altcoins by market cap (excluding Bitcoin) now account for approximately 82% of the sector's total market cap, a significant increase from 64% during the 2021 bull market. In the previous bull market, many small-cap altcoins that briefly created value gradually exited the market, replaced by a more top-heavy sector structure with shorter lifecycles for various short-term market narratives, making it difficult to sustain asset value growth.

Top 10 Altcoins Market Cap Share, Data Source: Coin Metrics

We can also observe this centralization trend by looking at the number of tokens that have surpassed a specific market cap threshold. Despite the total market cap of the crypto market hitting new all-time highs, the number of altcoins with a market cap exceeding $1 billion has decreased from around 105 at the peak in 2021 to approximately 58 currently. This means that even though the overall asset quantity in the market is increasing, the number of truly "investable" altcoins is decreasing. While this doesn't necessarily indicate a decline in the altcoin sector, the market's attention may further shift towards assets with solid fundamentals and higher risk resilience.

Number of Altcoins with Market Cap over $1 Billion, Data Source: Coin Metrics

The table below summarizes the annual evolution characteristics of the market trends mentioned above. Some metrics still exhibit cyclical patterns, such as Bitcoin's market dominance decreasing during bull markets and increasing during bear markets, but the market share of the top ten altcoins has followed a different trend: from 2020 to 2024, regardless of the market conditions, this ratio consistently stayed between 69% and 73%, but in 2025, it surged significantly to 82%. This change indicates a structural shift in the market towards mature flagship assets, rather than just a short-term "chasing quality assets for price appreciation" behavior.

Data Source: Coin Metrics

Capital Flow to Mainstream Coins

This trend of capital concentration is also reflected in asset performance. Since 2023, mid-cap coins (market cap $1 billion - $10 billion), especially small-cap coins (market cap below $1 billion), outperformed large-cap coins (market cap over $100 billion) in the early and late stages of 2024. However, this trend saw a sharp reversal in 2025 due to the rapid waning of market sentiment towards meme coins and other short-term narrative rotations.

On an equally weighted basis, from January 2023 to the present, the overall return of large-cap crypto coins is approximately 365%, while mid-cap and small-cap coins have only seen returns of about 70% and 55%, respectively. Most of the earlier gains have been given up. This phenomenon of return divergence clearly indicates that the market's performance is increasingly favoring developed, liquid assets, making it challenging for small-cap tokens to replicate the sustainability seen in previous cycles.

Market Performance of Tokens of Different Market Capitalization Tiers, Data Source: Coin Metrics

On October 10, 2025, the market experienced a large-scale liquidation event due to high leverage positions and liquidity exhaustion. This event may further strengthen the trend of capital inflow into defensive assets, with investors increasingly favoring high liquidity assets rather than small-cap assets with significantly higher volatility.

Conclusion

Various data indicate that the crypto market is undergoing a structural shift, gradually maturing, and moving towards consolidation. Despite the continuous growth in the number of crypto market assets and the increasing richness of traditional asset types supported as underlying infrastructure, the overall liquidity of the market remains limited. Meanwhile, in a multi-asset investment portfolio, crypto assets still need to compete with popular investment themes in the stock market, gold, and other traditional safe-haven assets.

Currently, capital is increasingly flowing into large-cap crypto assets, as well as the infrastructure track supporting stablecoins, tokenized assets, and the development of decentralized finance. The importance of liquidity and scale has been further heightened, raising the barrier for small-cap coins to attract long-term capital.

Of course, if market structure-related rules become clearer, and small-cap coins and multi-asset ETFs continue to proliferate, coupled with an improvement in market liquidity conditions, it is still possible to trigger a new altcoin season. However, it is foreseeable that the beneficiaries of this altcoin season will be more concentrated, and capital allocation will be more discerning than in any previous cycle.

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China's Central Bank and Eight Other Departments' Latest Regulatory Focus: Key Attention to RWA Tokenized Asset Risk


Foreword: Today, the People's Bank of China's website published the "Notice of the People's Bank of China, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration for Market Regulation, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, State Administration of Foreign Exchange on Further Preventing and Dealing with Risks Related to Virtual Currency and Others (Yinfa [2026] No. 42)", the latest regulatory requirements from the eight departments including the central bank, which are basically consistent with the regulatory requirements of recent years. The main focus of the regulation is on speculative activities such as virtual currency trading, exchanges, ICOs, overseas platform services, and this time, regulatory oversight of RWA has been added, explicitly prohibiting RWA tokenization, stablecoins (especially those pegged to the RMB). The following is the full text:


To the people's governments of all provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities directly under the Central Government, the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps:


  Recently, there have been speculative activities related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets (RWA) tokenization, disrupting the economic and financial order and jeopardizing the property security of the people. In order to further prevent and address the risks related to virtual currency and Real-World Assets tokenization, effectively safeguard national security and social stability, in accordance with the "Law of the People's Republic of China on the People's Bank of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Commercial Banks," "Securities Law of the People's Republic of China," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Securities Investment Funds," "Law of the People's Republic of China on Futures and Derivatives," "Cybersecurity Law of the People's Republic of China," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on the Administration of Renminbi," "Regulations on Prevention and Disposal of Illegal Fundraising," "Regulations of the People's Republic of China on Foreign Exchange Administration," "Telecommunications Regulations of the People's Republic of China," and other provisions, after reaching consensus with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, and with the approval of the State Council, the relevant matters are notified as follows:


  I. Clarify the essential attributes of virtual currency, Real-World Assets tokenization, and related business activities


  (I) Virtual currency does not possess the legal status equivalent to fiat currency. Virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Ether, Tether, etc., have the main characteristics of being issued by non-monetary authorities, using encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technology, existing in digital form, etc. They do not have legal tender status, should not and cannot be circulated and used as currency in the market.


  The business activities related to virtual currency are classified as illegal financial activities. The exchange of fiat currency and virtual currency within the territory, exchange of virtual currencies, acting as a central counterparty in buying and selling virtual currencies, providing information intermediary and pricing services for virtual currency transactions, token issuance financing, and trading of virtual currency-related financial products, etc., fall under illegal financial activities, such as suspected illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public issuance of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, etc., are strictly prohibited across the board and resolutely banned in accordance with the law. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to provide virtual currency-related services to domestic entities in any form.


  A stablecoin pegged to a fiat currency indirectly fulfills some functions of the fiat currency in circulation. Without the consent of relevant authorities in accordance with the law and regulations, any domestic or foreign entity or individual is not allowed to issue a RMB-pegged stablecoin overseas.


(II)Tokenization of Real-World Assets refers to the use of encryption technology and distributed ledger or similar technologies to transform ownership rights, income rights, etc., of assets into tokens (tokens) or other interests or bond certificates with token (token) characteristics, and carry out issuance and trading activities.


  Engaging in the tokenization of real-world assets domestically, as well as providing related intermediary, information technology services, etc., which are suspected of illegal issuance of token vouchers, unauthorized public offering of securities, illegal operation of securities and futures business, illegal fundraising, and other illegal financial activities, shall be prohibited; except for relevant business activities carried out with the approval of the competent authorities in accordance with the law and regulations and relying on specific financial infrastructures. Overseas entities and individuals are not allowed to illegally provide services related to the tokenization of real-world assets to domestic entities in any form.


  II. Sound Work Mechanism


  (III) Inter-agency Coordination. The People's Bank of China, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of virtual currency-related illegal financial activities.


  The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other departments, will improve the work mechanism, strengthen coordination with the Cyberspace Administration of China, the Supreme People's Court, and the Supreme People's Procuratorate, coordinate efforts, and overall guide regions to carry out risk prevention and disposal of illegal financial activities related to the tokenization of real-world assets.


  (IV) Strengthening Local Implementation. The people's governments at the provincial level are overall responsible for the prevention and disposal of risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets in their respective administrative regions. The specific leading department is the local financial regulatory department, with participation from branches and dispatched institutions of the State Council's financial regulatory department, telecommunications regulators, public security, market supervision, and other departments, in coordination with cyberspace departments, courts, and procuratorates, to improve the normalization of the work mechanism, effectively connect with the relevant work mechanisms of central departments, form a cooperative and coordinated working pattern between central and local governments, effectively prevent and properly handle risks related to virtual currencies and the tokenization of real-world assets, and maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  III. Strengthened Risk Monitoring, Prevention, and Disposal


  (5) Enhanced Risk Monitoring. The People's Bank of China, China Securities Regulatory Commission, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Public Security, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Cyberspace Administration of China, and other departments continue to improve monitoring techniques and system support, enhance cross-departmental data analysis and sharing, establish sound information sharing and cross-validation mechanisms, promptly grasp the risk situation of activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization. Local governments at all levels give full play to the role of local monitoring and early warning mechanisms. Local financial regulatory authorities, together with branches and agencies of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, as well as departments of cyberspace and public security, ensure effective connection between online monitoring, offline investigation, and fund tracking, efficiently and accurately identify activities related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly share risk information, improve early warning information dissemination, verification, and rapid response mechanisms.


  (6) Strengthened Oversight of Financial Institutions, Intermediaries, and Technology Service Providers. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing account opening, fund transfer, and clearing services for virtual currency-related business activities, issuing and selling financial products related to virtual currency, including virtual currency and related financial products in the scope of collateral, conducting insurance business related to virtual currency, or including virtual currency in the scope of insurance liability. Financial institutions (including non-bank payment institutions) are prohibited from providing custody, clearing, and settlement services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related business and related financial products. Relevant intermediary institutions and information technology service providers are prohibited from providing intermediary, technical, or other services for unauthorized real-world asset tokenization-related businesses and related financial products.


  (7) Enhanced Management of Internet Information Content and Access. Internet enterprises are prohibited from providing online business venues, commercial displays, marketing, advertising, or paid traffic diversion services for virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities. Upon discovering clues of illegal activities, they should promptly report to relevant departments and provide technical support and assistance for related investigations and inquiries. Based on the clues transferred by the financial regulatory authorities, the cyberspace administration, telecommunications authorities, and public security departments should promptly close and deal with websites, mobile applications (including mini-programs), and public accounts engaged in virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization-related business activities in accordance with the law.


  (8) Strengthened Entity Registration and Advertisement Management. Market supervision departments strengthen entity registration and management, and enterprise and individual business registrations must not contain terms such as "virtual currency," "virtual asset," "cryptocurrency," "crypto asset," "stablecoin," "real-world asset tokenization," or "RWA" in their names or business scopes. Market supervision departments, together with financial regulatory authorities, legally enhance the supervision of advertisements related to virtual currency and real-world asset tokenization, promptly investigating and handling relevant illegal advertisements.


  (IX) Continued Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, strictly controls virtual currency mining activities, continuously promotes the rectification of virtual currency mining activities. The people's governments of various provinces take overall responsibility for the rectification of "mining" within their respective administrative regions. In accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments in the "Notice on the Rectification of Virtual Currency Mining Activities" (NDRC Energy-saving Building [2021] No. 1283) and the provisions of the "Guidance Catalog for Industrial Structure Adjustment (2024 Edition)," a comprehensive review, investigation, and closure of existing virtual currency mining projects are conducted, new mining projects are strictly prohibited, and mining machine production enterprises are strictly prohibited from providing mining machine sales and other services within the country.


  (X) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal Financial Activities. Upon discovering clues to illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets, local financial regulatory authorities, branches of the State Council's financial regulatory authorities, and other relevant departments promptly investigate, determine, and properly handle the issues in accordance with the law, and seriously hold the relevant entities and individuals legally responsible. Those suspected of crimes are transferred to the judicial authorities for processing according to the law.


 (XI) Severe Crackdown on Related Illegal and Criminal Activities. The Ministry of Public Security, the People's Bank of China, the State Administration for Market Regulation, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, as well as judicial and procuratorial organs, in accordance with their respective responsibilities, rigorously crack down on illegal and criminal activities related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, such as fraud, money laundering, illegal business operations, pyramid schemes, illegal fundraising, and other illegal and criminal activities carried out under the guise of virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, etc.


  (XII) Strengthen Industry Self-discipline. Relevant industry associations should enhance membership management and policy advocacy, based on their own responsibilities, advocate and urge member units to resist illegal financial activities related to virtual currency and the tokenization of real-world assets. Member units that violate regulatory policies and industry self-discipline rules are to be disciplined in accordance with relevant self-regulatory management regulations. By leveraging various industry infrastructure, conduct risk monitoring related to virtual currency, the tokenization of real-world assets, and promptly transfer issue clues to relevant departments.


  IV. Strict Supervision of Domestic Entities Engaging in Overseas Business Activities


(XIII) Without the approval of relevant departments in accordance with the law and regulations, domestic entities and foreign entities controlled by them may not issue virtual currency overseas.


  (XIV) Domestic entities engaging directly or indirectly in overseas external debt-based tokenization of real-world assets, or conducting asset securitization activities abroad based on domestic ownership rights, income rights, etc. (hereinafter referred to as domestic equity), should be strictly regulated in accordance with the principles of "same business, same risk, same rules." The National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and other relevant departments regulate it according to their respective responsibilities. For other forms of overseas real-world asset tokenization activities based on domestic equity by domestic entities, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant departments, supervise according to their division of responsibilities. Without the consent and filing of relevant departments, no unit or individual may engage in the above-mentioned business.


  (15) Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing Real World Asset Tokenization-related services overseas shall do so legally and prudently. They shall have professional personnel and systems in place to effectively mitigate business risks, strictly implement customer onboarding, suitability management, anti-money laundering requirements, and incorporate them into the domestic financial institutions' compliance and risk management system. Intermediaries and information technology service providers offering Real World Asset Tokenization services abroad based on domestic equity or conducting Real World Asset Tokenization business in the form of overseas debt for domestic entities directly or indirectly venturing abroad must strictly comply with relevant laws and regulations. They should establish and improve relevant compliance and internal control systems in accordance with relevant normative requirements, strengthen business and risk control, and report the business developments to the relevant regulatory authorities for approval or filing.


  V. Strengthen Organizational Implementation


  (16) Strengthen organizational leadership and overall coordination. All departments and regions should attach great importance to the prevention of risks related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization, strengthen organizational leadership, clarify work responsibilities, form a long-term effective working mechanism with centralized coordination, local implementation, and shared responsibilities, maintain high pressure, dynamically monitor risks, effectively prevent and mitigate risks in an orderly and efficient manner, legally protect the property security of the people, and make every effort to maintain economic and financial order and social stability.


  (17) Widely carry out publicity and education. All departments, regions, and industry associations should make full use of various media and other communication channels to disseminate information through legal and policy interpretation, analysis of typical cases, and education on investment risks, etc. They should promote the illegality and harm of virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses and their manifestations, fully alert to potential risks and hidden dangers, and enhance public awareness and identification capabilities for risk prevention.


  VI. Legal Responsibility


  (18) Engaging in illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization in violation of this notice, as well as providing services for virtual currencies and Real World Asset Tokenization-related businesses, shall be punished in accordance with relevant regulations. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law. For domestic entities and individuals who knowingly or should have known that overseas entities illegally provided virtual currency or Real World Asset Tokenization-related services to domestic entities and still assisted them, relevant responsibilities shall be pursued according to the law. If it constitutes a crime, criminal liability shall be pursued according to the law.


  (19) If any unit or individual invests in virtual currencies, Real World Asset Tokens, and related financial products against public order and good customs, the relevant civil legal actions shall be invalid, and any resulting losses shall be borne by them. If there are suspicions of disrupting financial order and jeopardizing financial security, the relevant departments shall deal with them according to the law.


  This notice shall enter into force upon the date of its issuance. The People's Bank of China and ten other departments' "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation" (Yinfa [2021] No. 237) is hereby repealed.


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