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Trump Faces Increased Risk of Midterm Seat Loss as Term Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.6%
BlockBeats News, December 17, Tuesday - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed that the unemployment rate in November has risen from 4% during the tenure of U.S. President Trump to 4.6%. Such a significant increase is not a good sign, but it is also not uncommon in history.
According to WSJ's statistics, since 1953, six U.S. presidents have experienced an increase in the unemployment rate in the first ten months of their first term (Trump is actually in his second term, but his terms are not consecutive), specifically including:
Eisenhower (unemployment rate rose from 2.9% to 3.5%)
Nixon (3.4% to 3.5%)
Ford (5.5% to 8.8%)
Reagan (7.5% to 8.3%)
George W. Bush (4.2% to 5.5%)
Obama (7.8% to 9.9%)
Among them, Ford took office as the president after Nixon's resignation, making the comparability of his data weaker. Of the other five presidents, except for George W. Bush, each president's party lost at least 12 House seats in the subsequent midterm elections. During George W. Bush's time, the 2002 midterm elections focused on national security rather than the economy due to the impact of the "9/11" incident. Obama encountered the biggest setback (he referred to it as a "shellacking"), losing 63 seats in 2010.
It is worth noting that the actual unemployment rate in Trump's first ten months decreased from 4.7% to 4.2%, but in the 2018 midterm elections, the Democratic Party still won 41 House seats. This indicates that the unemployment rate and election results do not directly correspond. (Jinse)
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